在國家推進(jìn)高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的主題下，鋁板帶箔產(chǎn)品結(jié)構(gòu)發(fā)生變化，龍頭企業(yè)帶動效應(yīng)顯現(xiàn)，細(xì)分領(lǐng)域發(fā)展迅猛。但在鋁消費逐漸趨頂?shù)拇蟊尘跋拢?023年鋁板帶箔市場也已出現(xiàn)傳統(tǒng)消費明顯回落、出口貿(mào)易壁壘復(fù)雜嚴(yán)峻、熱點投資領(lǐng)域投資過熱的問題，具體表現(xiàn)在當(dāng)年鋁板帶及鋁箔產(chǎn)量雙雙回落，出口量同比減少明顯，加工費及產(chǎn)品利潤進(jìn)一步下滑，供應(yīng)過剩類產(chǎn)品產(chǎn)能仍在持續(xù)擴張。進(jìn)入2024年，鋁板帶箔加工費及價格將如何演變？供需結(jié)構(gòu)又將呈現(xiàn)怎樣的格局？筆者將從價格、供應(yīng)、需求、進(jìn)出口、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)等方面進(jìn)行分析預(yù)測。

　　Under the theme of promoting high-quality development in the country, the structure of aluminum sheet, strip and foil products has changed, and the driving effect of leading enterprises has become apparent, with rapid development in segmented fields. However, against the backdrop of gradually peaking aluminum consumption, the aluminum plate, strip, and foil market has also experienced a significant decline in traditional consumption, complex and severe export trade barriers, and overheated investment in hot investment areas in 2023. Specifically, the production of aluminum plate, strip, and foil both fell back that year, and the export volume decreased significantly year-on-year. Processing fees and product profits further declined, and the production capacity of products with oversupply continued to expand. How will the processing fees and prices of aluminum plates, strips, and foils evolve as we enter 2024? What kind of pattern will the supply and demand structure present? The author will analyze and predict from the aspects of price, supply, demand, import and export, industrial structure, etc.

　　一、鋁板帶箔品種2023年回顧與總結(jié)1.加工費持續(xù)下跌? 企業(yè)利潤降至冰點?

　　1、 Review and Summary of Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil Varieties in 2023 1. Will Processing Costs Continue to Decline? Has the company's profit dropped to freezing point?

　　2023年以來，鋁板帶帶箔市場已出現(xiàn)產(chǎn)能相對過剩、產(chǎn)品同質(zhì)化嚴(yán)重、惡性競爭時有發(fā)生、行業(yè)內(nèi)卷嚴(yán)重等問題，在此背景下，鋁板帶箔加工費均出現(xiàn)不同程度的下滑。

　　Since 2023, the aluminum sheet, strip, and foil market has experienced issues such as relative overcapacity, severe product homogenization, occasional vicious competition, and serious industry competition. Against this backdrop, the processing fees for aluminum sheet, strip, and foil have all experienced varying degrees of decline.

　　分品類來看，1060鋁幕墻卷加工費為1400元/噸，較2022年底下降350元/噸；5052鋁普板加工費為3300元/噸，較2022年底下降1400元/噸；PS板基加工費為2400元/噸，較2022年底下降200元/噸；易拉罐體料加工費3600元/噸，較2022年底下降2000元/噸，罐蓋料6000元/噸，較2022年底下降3000元/噸.鋁箔方面，食品包裝箔加工費為8500元/噸，較2022年底下降2100元/噸；15μm電池箔加工費14000元/噸，較2022年底下降1000元/噸。

　　By category, the processing fee for 1060 aluminum curtain wall coils is 1400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 350 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for 5052 aluminum sheet is 3300 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1400 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for PS board base is 2400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for can body materials is 3600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2000 yuan/ton from the end of 2022. The processing fee for can lid materials is 6000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3000 yuan/ton from the end of 2022. In terms of aluminum foil, the processing fee for food packaging foil is 8500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2100 yuan/ton from the end of 2022; The processing fee for 15 μ m battery foil is 14000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1000 yuan/ton from the end of 2022.

　　2.產(chǎn)能持續(xù)擴張? 熱點投資領(lǐng)域投資過熱

　　2. Will production capacity continue to expand? Hot investment areas with overheated investments

　　截至2023年12月，據(jù)Mysteel統(tǒng)計，中國鋁板帶箔建成產(chǎn)能約為2730萬噸。與此同時，從規(guī)模上來看，河南、山東、江蘇及浙江依舊是我國現(xiàn)階段產(chǎn)能聚集地的前四名。?河南省為中國鋁加工行業(yè)第一大省，鋁板帶箔企業(yè)超200家，產(chǎn)能共計1037.4萬噸，占全國總產(chǎn)能38%；山東省產(chǎn)能491.4萬噸，占全國產(chǎn)能18%；江蘇總產(chǎn)能245.7萬噸，占全國總產(chǎn)能的9%；浙江總產(chǎn)能191.1萬噸，占全國總產(chǎn)能的7%。

　　As of December 2023, according to Mysteel statistics, the construction capacity of aluminum sheet, strip, and foil in China is approximately 27.3 million tons. At the same time, in terms of scale, Henan, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang are still the top four production capacity clusters in China at present.? Henan Province is the largest province in China's aluminum processing industry, with over 200 aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises and a total production capacity of 10.374 million tons, accounting for 38% of the country's total production capacity; Shandong Province has a production capacity of 4.914 million tons, accounting for 18% of the national production capacity; Jiangsu has a total production capacity of 2.457 million tons, accounting for 9% of the country's total production capacity; The total production capacity of Zhejiang is 1.911 million tons, accounting for 7% of the country's total production capacity.

　　2023年鋁板帶箔企業(yè)產(chǎn)能規(guī)模集中化趨勢愈加凸顯，呈現(xiàn)區(qū)域集中性及規(guī)模積聚性特點。山東及河南兩省憑借優(yōu)越的原料優(yōu)勢，近年來產(chǎn)能規(guī)模不斷擴大，河南省鋁板帶箔生產(chǎn)企業(yè)集中于鄭州鞏義、洛陽、焦作三地，山東省鋁板帶箔企業(yè)集中于濱州、聊城、龍口三地，且產(chǎn)能還處于上升通道中。

　　In 2023, the trend of concentrated production capacity of aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises will become increasingly prominent, showing regional concentration and scale accumulation characteristics. With superior raw material advantages, Shandong and Henan provinces have continuously expanded their production capacity in recent years. Aluminum plate, strip, and foil production enterprises in Henan province are concentrated in Gongyi, Luoyang, and Jiaozuo in Zhengzhou, while those in Shandong province are concentrated in Binzhou, Liaocheng, and Longkou, and their production capacity is still on the rise.

　　此外，龍頭企業(yè)產(chǎn)能擴張明顯，而中小微企業(yè)產(chǎn)能占比呈現(xiàn)下滑趨勢。

　　In addition, leading enterprises have significantly expanded their production capacity, while the proportion of production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises has shown a downward trend.

　　鋁板帶箔產(chǎn)能依舊處于快速擴張通道中，且熱點領(lǐng)域有投資過熱傾向。據(jù)Mysteel統(tǒng)計，目前中國明確在建的鋁板帶箔項目共計21個，設(shè)計產(chǎn)能達(dá)316.8萬噸；擬建的鋁板帶箔項目共計21個，設(shè)計產(chǎn)能達(dá)337.9萬噸。其中，電池箔亦隨著新能源汽車的快速發(fā)展而成為鋁加工行業(yè)備受關(guān)注的明星產(chǎn)品，多家鋁板帶箔企業(yè)因而積極擴張生產(chǎn)規(guī)模，大量新增項目如雨后春筍般冒了出來，其中超過160萬噸與電池箔相關(guān)。

　　The production capacity of aluminum sheet, strip and foil is still in a rapid expansion channel, and there is a tendency for overheated investment in hot areas. According to Mysteel statistics, there are currently a total of 21 aluminum plate, strip, and foil projects under construction in China, with a designed production capacity of 3.168 million tons; There are a total of 21 proposed aluminum sheet, strip and foil projects with a designed production capacity of 3.379 million tons. Among them, battery foil has also become a star product in the aluminum processing industry with the rapid development of new energy vehicles. Many aluminum plate, strip and foil enterprises have actively expanded their production scale as a result, and a large number of new projects have sprung up like mushrooms after rain, of which more than 1.6 million tons are related to battery foil.

　　二、鋁板帶箔品種2024年展望

　　2、 Outlook for Aluminum Plate, Strip, and Foil Varieties in 2024

　　供應(yīng)方面，鋁板帶箔各品類產(chǎn)量變化分化趨勢將愈加明顯。我們認(rèn)為新能源汽車板塊中電池箔、釬焊箔、車身薄板將繼續(xù)保持較高增速，家具家居及耐用消費品產(chǎn)量將保持穩(wěn)定，而高端需求如C919大飛機、白車身、微通道等將有望高速發(fā)展。

　　In terms of supply, the trend of differentiated production changes in various categories of aluminum sheet, strip, and foil will become increasingly apparent. We believe that the battery foil, brazing foil, and body sheet in the new energy vehicle sector will continue to maintain a high growth rate, while the production of furniture, home furnishings, and durable consumer goods will remain stable. High end demand such as C919 large aircraft, white body, microchannels, etc. are expected to develop rapidly.

　　需求方面，建筑地產(chǎn)領(lǐng)域雖有“保交樓”政策支持，但仍難以給消費貢獻(xiàn)增量；包裝容器領(lǐng)域在“禁塑令”，人們生活水平不斷提高以及環(huán)保意識不斷等因素推動下，將繼續(xù)保持穩(wěn)定增長；交通運輸領(lǐng)域受新能源汽車產(chǎn)業(yè)帶動，保持最高增速，電池箔、車身薄板等產(chǎn)品將成為亮點；耐用消費領(lǐng)域空調(diào)的更新?lián)Q代于2023年已基本完成24難再有大幅增長。

　　In terms of demand, although there is policy support for "guaranteed delivery of buildings" in the construction and real estate sector, it is still difficult to contribute incremental consumption; The field of packaging containers will continue to maintain stable growth driven by factors such as the "plastic ban", the continuous improvement of people's living standards, and the increasing awareness of environmental protection; Driven by the new energy vehicle industry, the transportation sector will maintain the highest growth rate, with products such as battery foil and vehicle body sheet becoming highlights; The replacement of air conditioners in the durable consumer sector has been basically completed by 2023, and there will be no significant growth in the next 24 years.

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